“Certain speculations about the trend of present forces, speculations which, taken all together, will build up an imperfect and very hypothetical, but sincerely intended forecast of the way things will probably go in this new century.” – HG Wells, Anticipations (the namesake of this blog)
As it is essential to the theme of this blog that my predictions and anticipations are assessed by their conformity (or lack of conformity) with future events, it is imperative that these posts not be altered or manipulated after the fact. Of course, as the author, I admit that I would be incentivized (perhaps as a matter of simple pride) to rewrite, edit, or delete them when the future turns out otherwise than how I have anticipated it. To avoid against such a possibility, as well as to reassure my readers (if any) as to the reliability of my methods (more on this is to follow), I intend to duplicate this site on the Way Back Machine, which will provide a historical record of sorts that is not subject to alteration.
The only other point I will mention at this time is the methods I will use to make predictions in this blog. Whereas for some time there has been a trend towards the reduction of the world into mathematical terms and concepts, which in turn has enabled technological developments that only a few years ago would have found their home solely in science fiction, the best approach to predictions still lies in the human mind. Witness how often economists and wall street pundits armed with their powers and methods of mathematical augury get the future wrong! There have been so many wrong-headed predictions made by so many experts who rely principally upon these methods that one must wonder whether further study and research is warranted in this vein or whether, instead, a whole new approach to the matter of prediction must be considered. In short, the matter can be stated concisely as follows: Is it the probabilistic that gives the greatest insight into the future? Or, is it a method that is less a science, more an art, which has the greatest chance of success?
Unsurprisingly, the approach I endorse is far removed from mathematics and science. It is a story-based approach to prediction, one that relies upon literary motifs and historical narrative to frame significant events into a gestalt from which we can extract meaning about the future. Under my method, mathematical data is significant but must be couched within the broader narrative, as opposed to formulating the narrative from mathematical modeling. While I, of course, endorse my narrative-based method, one must also, however, consider the possibility that human society ultimately succeeds in its mathematical methods of prediction by virtue of rendering that society entirely mathematical and rational in its development and movement. To give but a simple example, if the stock market participants on the whole endorse artificial intelligence to engage in the activities of buying and selling stocks, shorting and taking call positions, and making other financial decisions autonomously on their behalf, then one might conceivably argue that the market itself will have become purely rational and subject to mathematics, thus enabling mathematical predictions to gain traction and cogency. While I would regard such an event as lamentable and tragic for society given my own predispositions and inclinations, I must acknowledge this as a possibility, however dim and unlikely it might well be.
Another topic about terminology. As my thoughts on this matter still require some refinement, I may change my terminology or opt for better terminology to express my thoughts. I may also define terms differently at various times.
Anticipations 